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Brisbane Weather Now BRISBANE WEATHER Latest weather long range forecast :: Queensland: Week by Week (Updated) above average warm nights so far Sea surface temperatures 3rd warmest on record in August December: Forecast Overview for Northern Australia The northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory are expected to experience above-normal rainfall over the next six weeks. Conversely, eastern New South Wales and parts of southeast Queensland are predicted to have drier conditions than usual. Significant rainfall is anticipated in specific areas, particularly around the Cape York Peninsula and the Kimberley region. Moisture Dynamics and Weather Patterns Anomalous northwesterly winds are expected to draw moisture from the tropics into northern Australia, enhancing rainfall potential. A weak low-pressure system south of Indonesia may funnel moisture into the Kimberley and western top end, creating opportunities for heavy rainfall. The interaction between upper-level winds and surface moisture could influence the distribution of rainfall across the region significantly. Rainfall Probabilities and Risks High probabilities of receiving over 30 mm of rain are anticipated for a large area, particularly in the Kimberley region and northern Queensland. While significant rainfall is expected, it’s important to note that this will not lead to widespread flooding but rather beneficial storm rainfall. Areas further south may see less intense rainfall, with expected totals in the 50 to 100 mm range, which is typical for this time of year. Temperature and Climate Trends Cooler than normal temperatures are predicted due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, particularly in inland regions. Warmer conditions are likely along the Queensland coast due to elevated sea surface temperatures. The forecast for subsequent weeks indicates a potential shift towards drier conditions across some areas, especially in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Long-term Outlook and Monitoring The forecast signals above-average rainfall for the Cape York Peninsula and the northern parts of Queensland over the next few weeks. Monitoring will continue for any potential tropical cyclones or significant weather systems developing in the region. The dynamics of moisture transport and atmospheric conditions will be crucial in determining rainfall patterns as the wet season progresses. Caveat : SSW's Are Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events about antarctica which shot up 30 degrees on normal, while this driver is not directly influencing weather else where, its sign can produce warming closer to the southern jet streams and that can directly affect the weather patterns down there. the jet streams with lows of 13 hectopascals on average and warmer then normal on high pressure zones This is a new phenomon and climatologists do not understand this mechanism yet. this is only the third since 2002 and 2019. Thus the season ahead is in unknown charted waters and what appears as signals of wetter or dryer conditions may not eventuate. **** Below are a list of drivers and patterns which may or may not eventuate *** However Putting that SSW aside and assuming it hase zero effect (a stupid assumption of course) we see our more traditional climate drivers - the ones we actually understand well - indicate a wet Spring and early Summer due to a marginal La Nina and strongly negative IOD. Both of these signals fade back to neutral over the latter Summer. and so correspondingly weather conditions being forecast to trend back to near average for Jan - April. Importantly there are no confident drier than normal signals across most of Australia in the coming months so that's a pretty telling signal in itself. Cyclone Development Potential Current models indicate a moderate risk for a tropical low developing into a cyclone, particularly affecting the northwestern cyclone region but remaining thousands of kilometres offshore. Despite warm ocean temperatures, there is no significant evidence for early season cyclone activity near Australia, although conditions for development are being monitored. The potential for strong uplift and rain in northern regions may increase as we approach mid-November. At A Quick Glance: it is no secret that Spring looks like it will be an active one with a Negative IOD, cool neutral to borderline La Nina conditions and above average SST's around the country. As we head deeper into the wet season, those climatic conditions neutralise somewhat, and this is reflected in the climate modelling for Summer. Coral Sea is above normal Temperatures Overview of climate (Long Range): IOD: Negative and dipping further Feeding more Moisture from Indian ocean and coral sea until January rise to neutral La Nina at Cool Neutral to Borderline and dipping further until summer with projections of el nino conditions Australia - South Pacific --- A fairly text-book spring pattern continues in the Southern Hemisphere as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event over Antarctica adds a bit more "oomph" to the usual spring westerly chaos. For the most part Spring 2025 is what we'd call a typical "classic spring" with a mixture of lows and highs moving through - but there's also a definite boost in westerlies across New Zealand and the southern half of Australia. Despite the blustery spring for some, those in northern Australia continue to lean drier - but more signs of the wet season are now showing up as thunderstorms and tropical showers start to develop. More low pressure is also forming in the north, although not yet producing much rain. Eastern New Zealand is also drying out, while the west of NZ and the deep south of the South Island remain average to maybe wetter than average in some locations.